TacticScale
The TacticScale Journal
Plain essays on the ideas behind the tool — fair value and owner earnings, margin of safety, cash versus price, and how to tell owning a business apart from betting on it. Slow reading for patient investors.
Companies · China
富途牛牛 / Futu (FUTU): a Shenzhen fintech with a world-class product and software-like economics — 47% growth, 87% gross margin, 28.4% ROE — now deeply discounted after the 2026 China crackdown. An engineer's admiration, and an honest look at what the market fears.
Business · China
China’s energy-drink champion (东鹏饮料, 605499.SS): ~35%-a-year growth, 34% returns on capital, net cash and a rising dividend. A business I admire — and why admiring a business isn’t the same as a buy.
Markets · Valuation
The same company can trade at two different multiples in two markets at once. On A/H share gaps, DCF misuse, reflexivity and the three kinds of value — and why the better question is what today’s price already believes.
Value Investing
A stock is just a bond with the coupon set free — the same cash-flow math, with the one fixed number allowed to grow, compound, or vanish. What that change means for how you value a company, and how to read a stock like a bond.
Value Investing
If fair value is a moving estimate and price updates every second, is there even such a thing as a value investor? On cash vs price, margin of safety, and the quiet line between owning a business and betting on it.
More essays coming — on owner earnings, moats, and reading a company in three minutes.