TacticScaleWhat Geo Does & How It Makes Money (GEO)
Updated October 2026 · reflects Geo's latest reported financials
Government contractor running secure facilities, reentry centers, and offender monitoring. GEO earns revenue from government contracts.
How Geo makes money
GEO earns revenue from government contracts. It runs and supports secure and reentry facilities and provides electronic monitoring and supervision services for people under community-based oversight.
What Geo does
The GEO Group is a government services provider founded in 1984 and based in Boca Raton, Florida. Its core business is running secure facilities and processing centers for government clients. It also provides the day-to-day services those facilities need, including secure custody, food service, residential care, health and mental health care, facility management, and building maintenance. GEO operates in the U.S., Australia, South Africa, and the U.K. Outside its facilities, GEO supervises people in the community. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment tracks and supervises parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants and offers evidence-based treatment programs. Its Reentry Services segment runs community-based programs, including education, treatment, pre-release, and half-way house programs. With four segments (U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision, Reentry, and International), GEO serves government agencies from custody through reentry into the community.
Products & services
- Secure facility operations
- Processing centers
- Electronic monitoring and supervision services
- Community reentry centers and half-way houses
- Pre-release and treatment programs
- Facility support services (food, health care, maintenance)
What is Geo worth?
On an owner-earnings DCF, Geo's most-likely value is about $20 versus a recent price near $31 (37% above fair value). But TacticScale only calls a stock undervalued when the price sits below its conservative no-growth floor (~$12) with a margin of safety — so the honest verdict here is “Fairly priced — no edge.” Fair value earns its keep only at the extremes, not in the wide middle.
Price sits in the normal range — fair value isn't actionable here; it earns its keep only when price drops below the no-growth floor, or runs to roughly double the optimistic case.
⚠ High leverage — net debt is 7.8× annual cash flow. Net debt is subtracted from this fair value, but refinancing at higher rates, principal timing, and share dilution aren’t modeled — the equity can be worth far less if cash flow weakens.
Analysis, not advice. Fair value is a margin-of-safety estimate from a deterministic owner-earnings DCF, not a price target or recommendation. See the full breakdown →
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